Can Facebook develop the antibodies to protect its Business? 80% user loss assumes no

There is a huge amount of news on Facebook losing up to 80% of its user base by 2017.

Study: Facebook to Lose 80 Percent of Users, Become the Next MySpace

PC Magazine - ‎3 hours ago‎

Just like an infectious disease, social networks can spread rapidly, gaining millions of users in a short amount of time, and then abruptly die off. It happened to MySpace, and Facebook could be next, according to a new study from Princeton University.

 

Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says

TIME - ‎Jan 21, 2014‎

Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest — if the model is correct. ”Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully ...

 

Facebook like an infectious disease, will lose 80 percent of users, says Princeton ...

NBCNews.com - ‎7 hours ago‎

Don't worry, like a viral outbreak, Facebook use will explode before plummeting down to Myspace levels of obscurity, says a new study from Princeton University. Using epidemiological models used to study the rapid spread of disease, the researchers found ...

 

Is Facebook like a spreading disease that's about to fade away? Princeton study ...

MarketWatch (blog) - ‎4 hours ago‎

Facebook could end up shedding a big chunk of its 2 billion users in three years, says a Princeton University study that cited 'disease-like dynamics' in the social network's upcoming doom. The study, by two Princeton PhD candidates Joshua Spechler and ...

 

Facebook Doomsday: Princeton researchers predict 80 percent users will quit by ...

Tech Times - ‎12 minutes ago‎

(Photo : Tech Times) The latest study from Princeton using epidemiological models reveal that the popularity of Facebook has begun to wane, and may see a dramatic 80 percent drop in peak user base between 2015 and 2017. These models were validated ...

There are a couple of points I want to make.  I think most people didn’t go through the whole document.  If they did they would have seen some nice graphics

The Facebook user projections.

Current Facebook traffic vs. Myspace.

When you look at decline linear progression of MySpace decline it seems like Facebook should follow the same slow decline vs. the bell curve shape.

This is all theoretical.  I would assume Facebook figures out the antibodies to protect its business and keep users.  The size of Facebook is much bigger than MySpace so it kind of like saying that the behavior of rabbits  can represent the behavior of bears.  Don’t think so.