Can Facebook develop the antibodies to protect its Business? 80% user loss assumes no

There is a huge amount of news on Facebook losing up to 80% of its user base by 2017.

Study: Facebook to Lose 80 Percent of Users, Become the Next MySpace

PC Magazine - ‎3 hours ago‎

Just like an infectious disease, social networks can spread rapidly, gaining millions of users in a short amount of time, and then abruptly die off. It happened to MySpace, and Facebook could be next, according to a new study from Princeton University.

 

Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says

TIME - ‎Jan 21, 2014‎

Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest — if the model is correct. ”Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully ...

 

Facebook like an infectious disease, will lose 80 percent of users, says Princeton ...

NBCNews.com - ‎7 hours ago‎

Don't worry, like a viral outbreak, Facebook use will explode before plummeting down to Myspace levels of obscurity, says a new study from Princeton University. Using epidemiological models used to study the rapid spread of disease, the researchers found ...

 

Is Facebook like a spreading disease that's about to fade away? Princeton study ...

MarketWatch (blog) - ‎4 hours ago‎

Facebook could end up shedding a big chunk of its 2 billion users in three years, says a Princeton University study that cited 'disease-like dynamics' in the social network's upcoming doom. The study, by two Princeton PhD candidates Joshua Spechler and ...

 

Facebook Doomsday: Princeton researchers predict 80 percent users will quit by ...

Tech Times - ‎12 minutes ago‎

(Photo : Tech Times) The latest study from Princeton using epidemiological models reveal that the popularity of Facebook has begun to wane, and may see a dramatic 80 percent drop in peak user base between 2015 and 2017. These models were validated ...

There are a couple of points I want to make.  I think most people didn’t go through the whole document.  If they did they would have seen some nice graphics

The Facebook user projections.

Current Facebook traffic vs. Myspace.

When you look at decline linear progression of MySpace decline it seems like Facebook should follow the same slow decline vs. the bell curve shape.

This is all theoretical.  I would assume Facebook figures out the antibodies to protect its business and keep users.  The size of Facebook is much bigger than MySpace so it kind of like saying that the behavior of rabbits  can represent the behavior of bears.  Don’t think so.

Facebook shares ideas on Optimizing the Data Center Operations

Facebook’s Delfina Elberly presented on Facebook’s Optimizing the Data Center.

Keynote: Optimizing Data Center Operations

It’s time to recognize that making data center operations more efficient greatly reduces OPEX, increases internal customer satisfaction, and increases employee satisfaction and retention. Facebook has developed a wide range of tools and systems to measure the status and reliability of data center hardware; automate repair processes; deploy staff more effectively; and perform a variety of other functions that help it run one of the most efficient server fleets in the world. In this talk, Facebook data center operations director Delfina Eberly will describe how Facebook addresses operations challenges, with a focus on best practices and systems that can help you unlock more efficiencies.

This slide has concepts shared.

Another concept shared is focusing on service.

 The majority of tools are developed in house, except asset tracking.

For those of you who are curious what Asset Tracking system Facebook uses Delfina didn’t say what the software is.  Should you buy the same software as Facebook uses for asset tracking.  Unfortunately, unless you are running 100,000 servers and making your own servers and servicing them yourselves like Facebook their software stack may not make sense.

I preface these points because don’t run out and grab a copy of Oracle Agile unless you are prepared to build you own servers with BOM discipline.  Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Dell need Agile, most of you don’t.

Delfina presented great concepts though that are good for optimizing a data center.  And I agree with the points Delfina made.  The hard part is executing with software.  I know how to do this, and how to build it given I have a client ask how to do product lifecycle management in the data center three years ago.  And, I’ve been crawling through a bunch of the issues to do this for years.  Disclosure: my brother works on the Oracle Agile product and it was Facebook employees who have said they use Agile, not my brother.

Delfina closed with a point that also describes the approach we use to transform operations.

Operations has a huge opportunity to be transformed.  Can you see the future?  “The Transformation of Operations” is coming.

Facebook keeps score of Serviceability and Operational Efficiency of Data Center Hardware

There is a short post on OCP by Charlie Manese, Facebook Hardware Design team on Serviceability and operational efficiency, so I will just put the whole thing up.

Know the guys at Google have this data, wonder who else does?

Facebook's perspective on serviceability and operational efficiency

Wednesday, October 09, 2013 · Posted by charlie at 8:09 AM

UPDATED - Webinar on October 24, 2013

By Charlie Manese, Facebook Hardware Design team

At Facebook, because of our scale, we require that solutions deployed in our data center be engineered for maximum operational efficiency and serviceability.

The data center team works closely with the hardware design team to ensure this. Our designs incorporate features such as front-of-rack serviceability, toolless repair operations, and simplicity.

We’ve completed time-in-motion studies, streamlined processes for inventory and repair, and have developed scorecards to that help us evaluate and compare different hardware solutions.

Below is a table of the time-to-repair comparison of different kinds of web servers that have been deployed in our environment:

 

If you're interested in learning more about how Facebook thinks about serviceability and operational efficiency, and you missed the original event, I'll be joining a Hyve webinar on October 24, 2013.

For more information on the event, please see  https://synnex.ilinc.com/perl/ilinc/lms/register.pl?activity_id=zvkkfkw&user_id=

Hope to see you there!

 

Open Compute Summit #5 coming Jan 28-29, 2014 San Jose Convention Center

I’ve gone to the four Open Compute Summits - Palo Alto, NYC, San Antonio, and Santa Clara.  #5 is in San Jose on Jan 28-29, 2014.  Registration is not open yet, but should be soon.

OCP Summit V

We are pleased to announce the dates for the next Open Compute Project Summit on Tuesday, January 28 and Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at the newly expanded San Jose Convention Center in San Jose, CA.

The Open Compute Project Foundation aims to accelerate data center and server and storage innovation while increasing computing efficiency through collaboration on relevant best practices and technical specifications.

Initiated in April 2011, the Open Compute Project incorporated as a foundation in October 2011 and has board representation from Facebook, Intel, Rackspace, Arista, and Goldman Sachs. The Open Compute Project Foundation is committed to collaborative dialogue and providing a structure in which individuals and organizations can contribute to Open Compute Project initiatives. Additional information about the Foundation's mission and principles can be found at opencompute.org.

At the last summit, attendees came from the technology sector in addition to finance, government, and consulting. These attendees represented executive-level roles of vice president or higher as well as IT directors and managers.

Venue

San Jose Convention Center - 150 West San Carlos Street, San Jose, CA 95113

Registration

Coming Soon!

Reporter uses Facebook's Rooftop to check out Apple's data center in Prineville

Facebook has been getting some news with the opening of its cold storage facility.

http://sustainablebusinessoregon.com/articles/2013/10/exclusive-a-look-at-facebooks.html?s=image_gallery

http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20131016/news0107/310160339/

http://readwrite.com/2013/10/16/facebook-prineville-cold-storage-photos#awesm=~oluaddHy6afA5O

What is funny is one reporter used the Facebook rooftop to check out Apple’s data center.

As it turns out, Apple's complex, code-named "Pillar"—and completely devoid of any markings identifying it as an outpost of the Cupertino company—is a literal stone's throw from Facebook's Prineville, Ore. hub. Tracking down the location of Apple's stealth site was just as easy as peering southeast from Facebook's roof, which ironically offered what was probably the best view in town. The Facebook employees pointed it out to me while cracking jokes about its apparently not-so-secret alias.

Construction began on the Apple data center last October, and now the first phase's main building (the large black one) appears to be complete, to the untrained, telephoto-lens equipped eye, anyway. Eventually the project will encompass two full 338,000-square foot data centers sprawling across Apple's 160-acre Prineville plot. And because everything is spookier and more fascinating when it's built out in the desert, we bring you the photographic fruits of our Veronica Mars-style investigation of Apple's Area 51.