Who will be the winners of Mobile Computing?

March 9, 2010 Dave Ohara

Don Dodge let go from Microsoft, and currently Google employee blogs on the Platform shift to Mobile.

MARCH 04, 2010

Platform shifts Mainframe to Mini to PC to Mobile. Why leaders fail to make the shift

Platform shifts happen every decade or so in computing. The leaders of the previous generation are rarely successful in dominating the next generation platform. IBM dominated the mainframe business. They didn’t lose their dominance because another company built a better mainframe. They lost it because the market shifted to a new platform…Mini computers. Digital Equipment, Data General, and a few others dominated that market. Another platform shift is happening today, from PCs to Mobile devices, and another industry leader will be left behind. John Herlihy of Google Europesays “In three years time desktops will be irrelevant”

The issues for Innovator's Dillemma are referenced.

Why do leaders fail to adapt? The Innovators Dilemma, made famous by Clayton Christensen, clearly explains why market leaders fail to make the leap. Innovation usually happens at the low end of the market where the products are simple, prices are low, margins thin, and the market totally undefined. The industry leaders have great margins, high prices, and customers who want more features and are willing to pay for them. The industry leaders always move up market and leave the new emerging market to smaller innovators. The process usually follows these 6 steps;

The disruptive technology is discovered, often by the market leading company.

Marketing people seek reactions from customers and industry analysts.

Established companies decide it is a better strategy to speed up the pace of sustaining technical advancement in their own product rather than go down market with the disruptive technology.

Start-ups learn about the disruptive technology and see opportunity. They keep their cost structure low, build the technology, and find new markets through trial and error.

The start-ups get some initial success and then move up market and eat away customers from the market leading company.

The market leading company finally jumps on the bandwagon reluctantly with a half hearted attempt and fails. It is too late.

Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker is referenced.

Platform shifts have 10X the number of devices and users. The move to Mobile is big and fast. Mary Meeker of Morgan Stanley says Mobile Internet usage is bigger than most people think, and it is exploding. Every platform shift has 10X the number of devices and users. There were about 1M mainframes, 10M mini-computers, 100M PCs, and 1 Billion cell phones. The next wave of mobile devices will be over 10B.

Mary Meeker's report has lots of good information in it.

Note the fast growth of Mobile Internet compared to other technologies

And, she makes the point I have seen few make which is spot on. The growth of real-time wireless sensors.

I was talking to a Google developer brainstorming some mobile scenarios, and he laughed when i was going three steps beyond his ideas. When we both worked at Microsoft we were talking about GPS data with photos in 2001, and people thought we were crazy - "that's too expensive and what would you do with GPS coordinates." Make money!!!!

Google is all over this scenario.

What is the new publishing and distribution network for Mobile?

The Mobile's phone capabilities are less important and some young users look at phone calls as people who aren't with it.

Pacific National Northwest Lab’s Electricity Infrastructure Operations Center

November 25, 2009 Dave Ohara

I wrote a blog entry about PNNL winning $89 DOE Grant. I’ve had chances to visit PNNL, but my trips got cancelled at the last minute.

Curious I found the Electricity Infrastructure Operations Center.

What is the EIOC?

The Electricity Infrastructure Operations Center (EIOC) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory brings together industry-leading software, real-time grid data and advanced computation into a fully capable control room. Shaped with input from utilities, technology vendors and researchers across the Northwest, the EIOC serves as a unique platform for researching, developing and deploying technologies to better manage and control the grid. The new technologies developed here will be transferable across the industry and address the national need for a more reliable and effective electricity grid.

Addressing a Need

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researchers are exploring how changes in the way the nation's electrical grid is operated can improve its reliability, lower costs and lessen environmental impacts. The focus is on developing real-time tools and supporting their integration into operating systems. We recognize and understand the need for new tools that provide not only a better view of the current power grid, but also faster and more accurate predictions of what might be happening so operators can quickly respond.

Being geeky, I found the HPC efforts interesting.

Real-time simulations

Figure 1. Integrated real-time operations platform for state estimation and grid simulation. Applying high-performance computing to power grid simulation enables real-time state estimation, faster-than-real-time dynamic simulation and dynamic contingency analysis. Click for a larger image.

At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we believe that traditional power grid algorithms can be reformulated and applied to high-performance computing platforms. Applying high-performance computing techniques and advanced computing hardware involves two major aspects: reformulation of power grid equations and parallelization of computational processes.

Power grid operations include many important functions. "State estimation" is central for driving other key functions, e.g., contingency analysis, optimal power flow and automatic generation control. State estimation typically receives telemetered data from the SCADA system every four seconds and extrapolates a full set of grid conditions for operators based on the grid's current configuration and a theoretically based engineering power flow solution.

Data Visualization

Visualization in Power

Visualization conveys complex information to system operators

Force directed representation of the Western Power Grid. Click for a larger image.

Historically, the visualization of power system data has not kept pace with state-of-the-art visualization techniques. Work performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Electricity Infrastructure Operations Center (EIOC) leverages techniques and tools previously developed by the National Visualization and Analytics Center (NVAC), located at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, for applications not related to power systems. By collaborating with NVAC it has been possible to apply new technologies to power system applications with a significantly reduced lead time.

Intel Developer Forum presentation Social Networks and Innovation, a new method for data centers

September 23, 2009 Dave Ohara

Intel Developer Forum is a big technical media event. There are lots to see and the media coverage is huge. Here is a partial picture of the media room as people are busy writing about Intel’s latest announcements. This room can hold over 200 people and it is full.

While I was in the media room I missed the most useful presentation of the day. Below is a picture of Eleanor Wynn, Social Technology Architect and Principal Engineer, Intel Corporation, staffing the booth for IT-CMF

I caught Eleanor moving, and here is a better picture.

What is IT-CMF?

IT Capability Maturity Framework (IT-CMF)

Ran across an interesting piece of work out of Intel Corp. The IT Capability Maturity Framework trys to take a stab at a common problem. What attracted me to this framework was the business oriented approach this framework takes. But after digging through their site I was hungry for more information. I couldn't find much more information besides a high level explanation. They do have a sample assessment out there that give you a better idea of the framework.

From IT-CMF Website:

From the synthesis of leading academic research, proven industry best practices and Intel's own experience in transforming the Intel IT organisation, Intel developed the IT Capability Maturity Framework (IT-CMF). Based on the lack of existing frameworks and the huge appetite from other top Business and IT executives for such an approach, Intel has decided that the best way to further develop and disseminate the IT-CMF, its associated tools and practices is to have it included as part of IVI’s research and education agenda.

The IT-CMF consists of four integrated strategies:

So, this is cool, but then I realized I missed Eleanor’s presentation on Social Networks.

What does Social Networks have to do with data centers? Social Networks characterize the behavior in the data center system for those companies/people who are doing the most innovative work.

Eleanor and I had a chance to talk for 3 hours at IDF, so I learned a lot even though I missed her presentation. One big concept which was helpful to describe issues is the “tribal knowledge” in IT vs. meme.

: an idea, behavior, style, or usage that spreads from person to person within a culture

Which gets to my point of why Social Networks and Memes are important characteristics in Innovative Green Data Centers.

The most innovative people in data centers are networked to share and receive ideas.

The social network enabled organizations know this.

Your head may hurt with these concepts, but here is summary to help you. My head hurts a little bit too, but I’ve been playing with these ideas for a while, and luckily I can follow up with Eleanor.

Some of the most innovative data center people are figuring out how to build their data center social networks as a competitive advantage.

Data Center Companies, Brand Recognition

September 21, 2009 Dave Ohara

Stepping back to look at the top brands who run data centers, Interbrand has a report on the top brands.

Out of the top 25 brands, here are the companies who have a big data center presence.

Note the big movers in brand recognition, Google 25% and Apple 12%.

2

United States
Computer Services
60,211
2%

In this tough market, Big Blue’s revenue is at an all-time high. IBM received the most U.S. patents (more than 4,000) for the 16th year in a row, investing heavily in innovation as it continues its progression from a hardware provider to a software and services solutions brand. It is the market leader, with expanded presence in more than 170 countries and approximately 65 percent of revenue generated outside of the U.S. With an advertising channel on YouTube and announced plans for cloud computing, IBM effectively communicates its message to the masses.
3

United States
Computer Software
56,647
-4%

2009 marks the first year-on-year decline in Microsoft’s public history, despite a game console division that continues to be profitable. As the market matures, the giant faces stiff competition from faster, quicker rivals. In terms of browsing, Microsoft’s Internet Explorer has dropped 10 percentage points in market share every two years, while Mozilla Firefox gains 10 percentage points in the same time period. Additionally, a US $300 million ad campaign featuring Jerry Seinfeld and Bill Gates could have fared better with audiences. However, Microsoft’s Bing, a new search engine that launched in June to great reviews, is poised to give Google a real run for its money.

7

United States
Internet Services
31,980
25%

Continued diversification of Google’s business, from new advertising models to online publishing, drives growth. The common theme is low price and high functionality with added transparency. Google Chrome is two times faster than competitors and stole browser market share equal to third- and fourth-placed competitors within 24 hours. This year, Google has continued to innovate. It released the Android phone software on September 2008, which involved disclosing the source code for the Google phone to engineers around the world. As the brand grows it has to deal with the inevitable mistrust and ugliness ascribed to being a very large, diversified, and very profitable company.

9

United States
Computer Hardware
30,636
-2%

In the fast-growing mobile computing market, Intel stands to find success. Determined to break into this category, the world’s number one chipmaker announced a partnership with the world’s number one handset maker in 2009. If it works, the Intel agreement with Nokia will put its latest chips into the hands of millions of customers. The line of chips, Atom, is meant to carry Intel into this higher growth market but has so far faced criticism for its cost and power consumption. However, Atom is finding success in the low-power, clutch size netbooks market. With an appeal toward more value conscious consumers in the midst of recession, netbooks have allowed Intel to stay both relevant and top of mind while it tries to crack the code on smaller mobile devices.

11

United States
Computer Hardware
24,096
2%

HP has surpassed Dell as the leading seller of PCs in the U.S., even with falling sales for the category. Overall globally, HP’s market share is also on the rise. A 20.5 percent increase follows last year’s acquisition of service-provider EDS. This year, HP also began a global review of its media holdings in Asia Pacific, with the focus on consolidating down to one, key, effective agency. In an increasingly price driven sector, HP is finding more way to successfully use its brand to stand apart.

14

United States
Computer Services
22,030
3%

Cisco is the leader in networking services but is still perceived as catching up in other parts of the computer services industry. It has a strong reputation for quality and reliability, boasting more than a quarter century in this relatively young industry. Its heavy investments in R&D, and its stated mission to innovate to customers’ needs, signal Cisco’s shift to become a broader provider of hardware and services, which should increase the role of its brand.

20

United States
Computer Hardware
15,433
12%

The recession won’t take a bite out of this Apple. Declining Mac sales and fears for the company’s future without brand visionary Steve Jobs, were outweighed by record high iPod sales, doubling sales for the iPod Touch, and all-time high market share for Mac OS software. Price might be a barrier for cost-conscious consumers, but Apple responded quickly with high margin, low-priced products like the US $99 iPhone and a new, voice-activated iPod Shuffle. The Apple brand is the most supported within its industry, and among the most iconic of relatively young brands in the world.

24

United States
Computer Software
13,699
-1%

Oracle has seen more category leadership as it beats out competitors in application sales and new software license revenues. With the recent purchase of Sun Microsystems, Oracle also acquired MySQL, and entered the hardware category. Its partnership with HP on a new database machine puts Oracle on track to steal market share from both Microsoft and IBM. As Oracle invests US $3 billion a year in R&D, its future success looks promising.

Green IT Service Forecast - $4.8 Bil in 2013

May 5, 2009 Dave Ohara

Found this eweek article on the growth of Green IT.

Green IT and Green Computing

Green IT Service Market to Grow to $4.8 Billion in 2013: Forrester

Share This Article
Article Rating: / 0By: Jeffrey Burt
2009-05-02
There are 1 user comments on this Green IT and Green Computing story.

Driven by corporate desires to save money and improve efficiencies, Forrester Research is predicting the green IT services market will grow 60 percent per year into 2013, when it will peak at $4.8 billion before leveling off. More enterprises are investigating hiring IT services firms to help plan and implement green IT initiatives, and while the global recession is putting a squeeze on IT spending, it also is persuading corporations to optimize their existing IT assets rather than buy new ones, and is fueling the federal government’s drive to fund green projects.

The market for green IT services, fueled by the push by businesses to save money and improve efficiencies, could grow by as much as 60 percent a year over the next four years, according to a report from Forrester Research.

Christopher Mines from Forrester is the source for the article.

“In the context of a $500 billion global market for IT services in 2008, the $5 billion market for green IT services [in 2013] may look like small potatoes to vendor strategists,” Mines said in the report. “However, we expect that the visibility and strategic importance of green IT projects will put them near the top of many corporations’ consulting agendas.”

Essentially, enterprises are going green and want to find vendors that can help them, from data center giants such as Cisco Systems, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM and Sun Microsystems to service providers such as Accenture, Capgemini, Deloitte and Infosys.

Note the last paragraph and the list of companies with green data center practices.